Még egy kvotésön:The other possible scenario is that in the next few weeks there is a significant increase in the WAFz/poleward heat transport that begins to perturb the stratospheric PV in early January. Potentially this could result in a robust SSW and even a major mid-winter warming (MMW where the zonal wind reverses from west to east at 60°N and 10hPa). Given that the QBO is in its westerly phase this might be difficult and instead the stratospheric PV becomes stretched or elongated such that the flow switches from westerly to northerly over North America and Northern Asia. This would favor colder temperatures for parts of Canada, the US and Northern Asia. I believe to force colder temperatures in Europe would likely require a more robust perturbation of the stratospheric PV and that elongation of the PV would not likely be sufficient.