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Köszönjük az együttműködést és a megértést.
Hello Kaposvár 
IT TOOK A WHILE, BUT NOW I CAN SMILE ( ABOUT THE WINTER FORECAST IDEA FOR EUROPE)
I am pleased to say that no sustained cold is in sight the next 2 weeks for UKMET and IRELAND! Back and forth, sure. but overall there is nothing special I can see through Feb 5. And this was the main thrust of the mid and late winter idea. But I was not happy about the slow development of consistent below normal across the south, but its here now and likely to stay, with the cold pool from now through the 5th of Feb centered from Spain into the Balkans and moving back and forth. This blog is not to start picking out details in these areas, it is to let readers know that I am still not seeing the return of the kind of severe cold to the northwest that we had in December, and has been a source of speculation, consternation and challenge to my ideas since the cold broke. I am though seeing, and again, a couple of weeks later than I would have wanted from when I issued this forecast back in the fall, the turn to colder in the south in a way where it is going to hold for a while to come.
Over in the US, the southeast US is having one of their coldest winters on record, absolutely amazing giving the fact its a la nina winter and with the exception of 1918, something that has never happened in a La nina winter. In fact if we took all the first year la nina winters ( winters with at least a moderate la nina one winter and another one right after.. I think the nina continues into next winter) this winter in the US is unheard of!
Perhaps some of the folks that thought the hammer would continue to pound away in northwest Europe had the right idea in a way. For when you go into such cold patterns, 2 out of 3 of the major teleconnections points between the far east, eastern n america and western europe will try to hold on. In this case it was the eastern Us and eastern asia.
The global temps at noon london time was -.25C Its on this site
Ciao Salek
IT TOOK A WHILE, BUT NOW I CAN SMILE ( ABOUT THE WINTER FORECAST IDEA FOR EUROPE)
I am pleased to say that no sustained cold is in sight the next 2 weeks for UKMET and IRELAND! Back and forth, sure. but overall there is nothing special I can see through Feb 5. And this was the main thrust of the mid and late winter idea. But I was not happy about the slow development of consistent below normal across the south, but its here now and likely to stay, with the cold pool from now through the 5th of Feb centered from Spain into the Balkans and moving back and forth. This blog is not to start picking out details in these areas, it is to let readers know that I am still not seeing the return of the kind of severe cold to the northwest that we had in December, and has been a source of speculation, consternation and challenge to my ideas since the cold broke. I am though seeing, and again, a couple of weeks later than I would have wanted from when I issued this forecast back in the fall, the turn to colder in the south in a way where it is going to hold for a while to come.
Over in the US, the southeast US is having one of their coldest winters on record, absolutely amazing giving the fact its a la nina winter and with the exception of 1918, something that has never happened in a La nina winter. In fact if we took all the first year la nina winters ( winters with at least a moderate la nina one winter and another one right after.. I think the nina continues into next winter) this winter in the US is unheard of!
Perhaps some of the folks that thought the hammer would continue to pound away in northwest Europe had the right idea in a way. For when you go into such cold patterns, 2 out of 3 of the major teleconnections points between the far east, eastern n america and western europe will try to hold on. In this case it was the eastern Us and eastern asia.
The global temps at noon london time was -.25C Its on this site
Ciao Salek
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Indul a MetNet előrejelzési verseny sorozatának 41. sorozata
MetNet | 2024-11-02 11:38
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